A joint model of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) growth and prostate cancer (PC) progression

Basic Model Attributes
Cancer siteProstate
Host institution Fred Hutch Cancer Research Center
Purpose The original objective behind modeling prostate cancer trends was to disentangle the roles of PSA screening and changes in primary treatment patterns in US prostate cancer incidence and mortality trends. While both prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates have continued to fall since the early 1990s, the relative contributions of screening and treatment to the observed declines in mortality remain intensely debated. Additional applications of the model, supporting by its continued development and extensions, include studying disease natural history and heterogeneity; investigating roles of different natural history and treatment efficacies in racial disparities; evaluating comparative and cost-effectiveness of alternative PSA screening strategies; improving methods to quantify individual risks of overdiagnosis and overtreatment; quantifying the effects of timing of treatment for low-risk prostate cancers; and reconciling seemingly conflicting results of two randomized clinical trials of PSA screening--Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial in the US and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC).
Contact Roman Gulati (
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